Statistical analysis of wheat production in Nigeria
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.64497/jssci.136Keywords:
Wheat production, agricultural policy, time series analysis, food security, statistical modellingAbstract
Wheat is a major cereal crop and a fundamental component of global food security. In Nigeria, however, domestic production has never matched rising demand, making the country extremely import-reliant. This study analyzes trends in wheat production in Borno, Jigawa, and Katsina, the three major wheat-producing states in Nigeria using annual data for the years 2015–2024. Three time series models, namely linear, exponential, and polynomial, were employed in identifying production trends and forecasting future production. The models' performance was compared using the coefficient of determination (R²), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The findings exhibit an overall upward trend in production, although significant fluctuations were recorded, particularly in 2020, reflecting climatic change and policy disruption. Among the models considered, the polynomial specification was the most appropriate fit, and it described the nonlinear dynamics of production more so than the linear and exponential specifications. The findings underscore the effects of climate, seed quality, mechanization, and government policy interventions on wheat production. To promote self-sufficiency, the study recommends investment in irrigation facilities, adoption of climate-resilient agriculture, integration of advanced forecasting methods, and farmers' capacity development. These measures are to be taken in order to reduce the dependency on wheat import and strengthen Nigeria's food security system.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Muhammad Aliyu Auwal, Garba Abubakar Abdullahi, Muhammad Sadiq Nasir
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