Mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of Newcastle disease in caged chickens with biosecurity interventions
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.64497/jssci.207Keywords:
Newcastle Disease, Caged Chickend, Biosecurity, Vaccination, StabilityAbstract
Newcastle Disease (ND) remains a major threat to poultry production worldwide causing high mortality, and economic losses. Despite numerous attempts by proponents in many fields to curtail the menace, it spreads among avians significantly raises. It is in this light that this study developed and analyzed a deterministic compartmental model to investigate the transmission dynamics of Newcastle disease in caged chickens with biosecurity interventions. Building upon an existing SEIR framework that has some certain potholes, propelled the development of a new model that incorporated a three-stage vaccination strategy, isolation of symptomatic chickens, and differential infectivity (asymptomatic and symptomatic infection). The analytical results of a new model established the positivity and boundedness and its disease-free equilibrium point was derived. Moreover, the basic reproduction number , is computed using the method next-generation matrix. In addition, sensitivity analysis reveals that certain parameters contained in the basic reproduction number either increases or decreases it, which translated to either the disease persists or dies out. Lastly, numerical simulations were performed with eight (8) different experiments, one of which was demonstrated to reveal the impact of combined strategies using vaccination and isolation. The strategy employed, provided synergistic benefits, improving control effectiveness, and reduced long-term prevalence.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Ahmed Umar, Evans Elkanah, Garba Isah Alkumz, Abubakar Isah
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